Rhetoric

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It was a great speech.

Prime Minister Mark Carney made headlines around the world this week. He gave a resounding speech at Davos; and Canadians are buzzing about it. A few days on, and some of the knock on effects of the speech are starting to surface. The chickens are beginning to come home to roost.

Carney must be commended for the brand he has created. Davos was, up until this year a controversial event to wide swaths of the population. The term “Davos Man” was a slur, meant for globalist elites who ignore the plight of the every-man in service of and the perpetuation of existing structures of power. Davos was viewed as an ivory tower. This week however, that aspect of the conference has seemingly been dismissed. Carney’s branding is apparently that being rich and powerful is back in vogue.

It is a masterclass in changing the narrative. We should not be surprised, as this is not the first time Mr. Carney has shifted the focus of the Canadian populous. A year ago, the Hub put out an extremely apt analogy. They called the spring election the “Men In Black Election”. A reference to the pen device that the MIB agents use in the films - wiping the memories of anyone that beholds the pen.

Indeed, the political climate of the time was that the Liberal Party was cooked due to ten years of gross mismanagement on just about every file. Only Liberal diehards denied that the government had been a failure. Mr. Carney was able to erase that entire sentiment by distancing himself from Justin Trudeau. Again, a masterful political stroke as it was well documented that Mr. Carney had been the chief economic advisor for the Liberal party for at least five years prior to Trudeau Jr's decision to resign. His narrative judo was so sophisticated, that Carney was able to completely wipe his own participation in the Liberal apparatus away.

Indeed he dominated the now banished Chrystia Freeland in the Liberal leadership election, while somehow evading attention to perhaps the most key part of the story: That Freeland resigned and turned on Justin Trudeau, because he had decided to remove her as the finance minister and replace her with none other, than Mark J Carney.

After winning the leadership, Carney should have been respected as a smooth political operator. Yet he was still grossly underestimated by his opponents. Conservatives were not prepared for the ferocious change in the political winds to come.

While Poilievre and the Conservatives continued to rest on their laurels, Carney rallied the nation behind him. The Tories figured that their lead was insurmountable, and by the time they refocused their campaign strategy - the Liberals had left them in the dust. Carney did this by appealing to some of the most basic fears of Canadians; positioning Donald Trump, his threats of annexation and his tariffs as a political arch nemesis. More importantly perhaps, he was able to absorb the Canadian left. In swing ridings across the country, the left wing was painting Pierre Poilievre as “Maple MAGA”. The Liberals would not get in their way to try and stop it. The federal New Democrats, for their part, were ignoring their slow decline into political irrelevance. Instead they were busy salivating at the opportunity to take Mr. Poilievre down and serve the abrasive Conservatives their just desserts.

There was no better example of this than during the Federal Leaders debate where Poilievre was unable to attack Carney because he was constantly responding to barbs from the NDP leader. Perhaps it was idiocy, or perhaps it was the death throes of an impotent NDP leader that knew his goose was cooked. Jagmeet Singh (remember him?) was criticized at the time for letting the Liberals eat his lunch, but he may have been ahead of the rest of the country. He may have already seen the writing on the wall and known that he had no chance of victory. So why not deliver a parting shot to his nemesis on the way out? A good lesson for all politicians to treat opponents with grace despite their disagreements.

All that is to say, Mr. Carney pulled off a stunning comeback with his Mike Myers infused “elbows up” rhetoric and sophisticated statesmen aura. He was able to completely expunge the memory of ten years of Liberal mismanagement. He is a surprisingly smooth political operator, his speech at Davos inspired so many Canadians to feel proud and feel seen on a global scale for the first time in at least a decade.

This week, Mr. Carney has again successfully redirected Canadian’s focus away from his own internal promises or measures of success. Carney’s election platform is still available on the Liberal Party’s site. In it, he promised to completely reverse the fortunes of the country, and to build “Canada Strong”. The big ticket items were funding and expediting major infrastructure projects, as well as eliminating interprovincial trade barriers. The biggest pillar of his campaign, the coup de gras, was that he would be the best man to negotiate with, and go toe to toe with Mr. Donald Trump.

Almost a year on and the rhetoric remains strong. He has approved the fast tracking of plans for major infrastructure projects, he has delivered the Free Trade and Labour Mobility Act. Critics would correctly say however, that all of the “fast tracked” infrastructure projects are projects that were already in development, and it is unclear what exactly the fast tracking will do. On Infra, the needle hasn’t actually moved. On interprovincial trade, much of the same has happened. The Free Trade and Labour Mobility Act amounts to a memo - “plans to make plans” and set up an environment to bring down those barriers. Results will come eventually, apparently. Canadians are meant to trust Mr. Carney. Even the much celebrated deal with Alberta Premiere Danielle Smith is simply an agreement to proceed - there are no firm plans on the table. Nothing has actually happened yet. That is not to say that nothing will happen. But at some point, the package must be delivered. Eventually Canadians will have to roll their eyes when the Liberal’s continue to say that their gifts are in the mail.

“Trust me” was Mr. Carney’s brand, and domestically a year on, it remains so. “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”. In other words, Canadians do not need to focus on campaign promises, because there are far more important things to focus on; ie, the “ruptured” world order.

The Davos speech was lauded as a success fundamentally because its contents appealed to the idealized version of that ruptured world that needs to be rebuilt. Mr. Carney’s thesis is that middle powers need to band together and strategically align in order to survive in a world order where global superpowers are playing hardball. Without ever mentioning him directly, Mr. Carney was clearly criticizing Donald Trump. Carney made the calculation that he would fire a shot at the infamous President of the United States. For better or for worse though, Carney has now poked the bear.

The weeks to come will reveal whether this was a successful gambit. There is clearly a strong reason that no other political leaders in the world decided to take a shot at the President in this manner. When you mess with the bull, you get the horns. In other words, there will be consequences. Already Mr. Trump has removed Carney from the brain trust on rebuilding Gaza. Yesterday, he took to twitter to threaten massive tariffs on Canada if Carney proceeds with his trade deal with China.

On that planned deal, as well as the one with Qatar, the irony is striking. The Carney theory of the case as laid out in Davos is essentially that we need to move away from reliance on the USA. This is because we are concerned that the President is (becoming) a hostile, imperialist, bullying dictator. Fair enough, but in looking elsewhere, Canada has decided to cozy up to hostile, imperialist, bullying dictators/monarchs.

China has been a major adversary to Canada for decades. Again in Men in Black fashion, we seem to have forgotten the debacle with the two Michaels, the long documented history of foreign interference, Chinese human rights abuses, and that little thing called COVID 19.

Qatar on the other hand is an oil sheikhdom (petro-monarchy) that successfully sports-washed its image at the 2022 World Cup. Another case of amnesia is that those very world cup facilities were built with slave labour. They also have the distinction of being the nation that harbours the billionaire brain trust of a noble organization called Hamas.

Of course the United States has its problems, and as the awful situation in Minnesota continues to deteriorate, there is concern that American civil order is in peril. But China and Qatar are hardly darling middle powers, bastions of democracy, human rights, or reliable allies. Indeed, the USA is still by far the best option on the short list of major powers we would want to associate ourselves with. All this notwithstanding the geographic concerns. Simply due to location, Canada is and always will be primarily dependent on trade, security, and cooperation with the United States. As such, that relationship needs to be prioritized, and managed with utmost care. All the more so when the President is this volatile.

Hating Trump is easy to do, but to underestimate his skill is a worse affront than underestimating Mr. Carney. The tactics are atrocious, but using the threat of annexation, the US has seemingly secured a grand slam deal over Greenland. With mineral and military rights, all backed by NATO. This is the Trump playbook. Start at such an extreme position, that when you “meet in the middle”, the deal is heavily in your favour.

Despite his flaws, Trump has one more thing that Mr. Carney does not: job security. Carney is still a couple of floor-crossers short of a majority, which means he has not fully consolidated power. This was perhaps what Davos and the overlooked Cabinet Retreat speech was really about: securing a majority.

It worked last time, so why not try it again? Paint the biggest threat facing Canada as American Imperialism and a wicked President. Calmly but concerningly direct Canadian attention to narratives like that of the 51st state. Suavely call for national unity, and pounce before anyone starts wondering if those major promises made on the campaign trail last year really are just stuck in the mail.

Carney is a smooth political operator, and the PMO knows it would make sense to go to an election while his brand’s stock is sky high. The NDP is still leaderless, and Pierre Poilievre is busy trying to survive a leadership review while shoring up discipline before any of his other MPs abandons him. The timing may be perfect for the Liberals to secure a strong mandate.

So a spring election is extremely likely. The pieces on the board are set up, and Canadians will likely focus on Trump for another few months at least, completely ignoring their domestic concerns. Probably until the US midterms. So until then, the messaging is clear, and Canadian fears will continue to be stoked by powerful narratives.

It was a fantastic speech at Davos, it galvanized a nation for a few days at least. It felt good to have a paragon represent Canada. Words are an extremely powerful tool after all. They are also a double edged sword, and when wielded can have dire consequences. They can keep your eyes and ears focused elsewhere. But actions and policy do matter eventually. Sooner or later, Canadians will demand that the Liberals deliver.

Eventually Canada’s future will need to be shaped by tangible results. Until then, more pain will be endured, especially if tensions with the US flare up. The Liberals should be cognizant that with enough suffering, change will have to come - whether that’s through policy or regime change, is to be determined.

With Trump’s latest threats, Carney has a huge decision to make. He can stay the course, and allow Trump to ruin Canada’s economy in a lose/lose situation - Americans suffer (less so) in that scenario too. Or he can balk, and cave to the boogeyman. Carney’s Davos speech will likely define his legacy, he now seems to be backed into a corner. Carney will have to make a choice now. Or perhaps he will maintain his record as a smooth operator and evade a critical mistake. This could very well be the launchpoint for a strong Liberal majority in the spring.

Words can have consequences however, and if Carney can’t land the plane, Canadians will be the ones who will suffer them. That’s the thing about words and great speeches: we can dream on them, we can rally behind them, but we can’t build a strong nation on rhetoric alone.

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