The Toronto political focus has been on Chris Alexander recently. Centrists don’t want him to run, as his candidacy can only improve the chances of an Olivia Chow victory. Yet, there is no compelling reason for Alexander to drop out at this point.
Why? Well, to understand that, like most things, we need to examine the incentives at play.
For Alexander, it is pretty clear that there is no path to victory, so this isn’t about winning. The primary incentive for him to stay in the race seems to be the simple fact that we’re talking about him at all. In other words: no one — myself included, and probably you — had any idea who this guy was before he jumped into the mayoral race. Anyone who did had long forgotten the Harper-era Conservative politician.
That, in itself, is a highly salient and high-value incentive. In the modern era of the brand economy, Alexander is now going to be the focus of the conversation for another few months — and all it cost him was $200, the fee to run for mayor in Toronto.
Baffling as this decision seems, Alexander is not an idiot. To underestimate him, or declare him one, would be a mistake.
This guy was a federal cabinet minister. He is not a fool.
So what are his larger goals? Well, it’s no secret that there’s a lot of turmoil within the federal Conservative Party of Canada. Pierre Poilievre is running out of time as leader — whether that comes before or after another election, no one lasts forever. There is no clear logical successor for Poilievre at this time. Similarly for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford is coming up on ten years in the job. Eventually he will be doing something else.
For Alexander, this is all upside. He may never get to be relevant in Conservative politics, but building his brand, getting the practice in primetime, it certainly isn’t going to hurt him. This might explain why most of his stances have been about issues that have little or nothing to do with Toronto — he’s not really running for mayor.
Politics in Canada is about name-brand recognition more than anything else, so for the low cost of $200, Alexander is getting publicity and experience in the limelight that is worth tens of thousands — if not hundreds of thousands — of dollars.
You don’t have to look any further than that — it becomes clear. Every interview he does, every article posted about him, is exactly what he wants. If he were being ignored, he wouldn’t be doing this — but he’s not being ignored. He’s being rewarded for his decision.
On the other side of the ledger. Why would he be incentivized not to run?
For some moral reason? That’s just not relevant, unfortunately, this is politics.
For the love of Toronto? Chris Alexander doesn’t care about Toronto. He’s from Ajax. Why would he care about Toronto?
Because he hates Olivia Chow? Maybe — but obviously that’s not enough of an incentive. She’s already the mayor. He probably figures that whatever damage she’s doing is either not relevant or not so bad that it compares to the upsides.
Because he loves Brad Bradford? Of course not — Bradford is endorsed by Liberal MPs and MPPs. Bradford, despite what progressives think, is about as centrist as they come. Smart conservatives are rallying behind him because they know that Toronto is never going to be blue.
But if you’re Chris Alexander, all this is academic.
The incentives are clear. Lots of upside, little to no downside. Well worth a three-month experiment.
So if Bradford supporters want to get Alexander to actually back off, what’s it going to take?
Well, you would need either Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre to offer him something — anything — better than the publicity he is getting now. There is little incentive for them to be spending political capital on Alexander.
At the end of the day, this all comes down to incentives. The more Alexander is attacked by Bradford supporters, the more he’s featured in the media, the more they are playing into the would-be spoiler’s hands.
Counterintuitive as it may seem, Progress Toronto supporters of Olivia Chow will want Alexander to remain centre stage. Every vote for him is a vote Brad Bradford might have gotten.
Anyone who supports Bradford, or who simply doesn’t want Chow to be the mayor, would do best to ignore Alexander completely. There’s no evidence he’s a serious contender — he can only hurt a centrist like Bradford by splitting the vote.
Liberal voters and partisans should keep their powder dry and instead focus on building up Brad Bradford’s prominence if they really would like to see change at city hall.