A Changing World Order

The current world order has meant that Millennials have grown up in unprecedented times. Thirty somethings in the west have never known war, hunger, or economic depression. This colours the way they see the ongoing conflicts that seem to be becoming more and more frequent: The war in Ukraine, Israel’s conflict with Iran, and now the extradition of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Young people find these conflicts impossible to grok. This can be credited to the fact that if you’re 30 something - your entire life has been lived in peace under the Pax Americana. In this time there has only been one global superpower: the United States of America. The world order is doing what it always does, changing. These conflicts are the growing pains.

As Oren Cass argues, our current era of peace has been an anomaly. We can see from history that it is such, the Pax Romana for example lasted for centuries, but was inevitably destroyed. The British used to have an empire upon which the sun never set. Empires (of which the US is the 21st century’s gold standard) ebb and flow. They increase in strength, they diminish, they eventually go extinct.

After World War II, we existed in a bi-polar world. There was the US, and there was the Soviet Union. The cold war happened, and the Soviets eventually lost and imploded. This left only one power at the top of the perch: the USA. For 30 years, the United States continued to be the world’s top and greatest power - they had a global reach and no other powers had a realistic opportunity to challenge them. There was the USA, a large gap, and then everyone else. As the 90s and 2000s went on, China, India, Iran, and Russia began resurging, seeking perhaps to restore their historical places as global superpowers.

History repeats itself, and the world order is once again rearranged. While the USA is still the most powerful force in the world, the gap has closed. The consequences of this are that they no longer have the seemingly infinite resources to be able to stick their tendrils in any and every conflict. They are managing decline and trying to execute a soft landing to retain their status as dominant in the next version of the global paradigm.

Fundamentally, the current crop of Republicans have decided that the horse has left the barn and that the US needs to reorient itself in a multipolar world. In other words, they believe the US needs to be realistic about its position, accept reality, and control what it can. The conclusion they draw when they look at the map of planet earth, is that the US needs to retain influence over all of the Americas.

When they look across the globe, they see major powers to contend with, and satellite and proxy states to act as a check. With Europe, where their values align, there exists a foothold for combatting Russia. For China, Australia ought to remain in their influence as a bulwark. This also acts as a check to India. Finally they look to the Middle East; combatting Iran (and to a lesser extent Turkey) with Israel.

This neatly explains the throughline with each and every small state that garners outsized attention on the global scale: Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, etc. With this change in posture, the United States can begin to deploy its might closer to home in what it sees as its own backyard: the Americas again.

Seeing a resurgence of conflict in the western hemisphere is jarring because we have been living in an unprecedented time of peace. When we continue to peruse history however, there isn’t anything new under the sun. These military actions by the US are simply a demonstration of what the truth on the ground has always been. The reality that Millennials need to wake up to: the world doesn’t actually run on the golden rules that define our values. Loving thy neighbour, turning the other cheek, and doing unto others.

From an American perspective, a country and regime like that in Venezuela has been taking advantage of the US’s good graces throughout the last decade. The US hasn’t acted in retribution for any of the many slight it has perceived in its sphere of influence. Perhaps it is because they have been focused elsewhere, living under philosophies and assumptions in the unipolar world order or that they lacked the incentives to act.

No matter the case, the action in Venezuela signals that the situation has changed. Along with the strikes in Iran last year, we can see that the US is attempting to restore its deterrence. They are saying that “Yes, we admit that the Pax Americana is over, We have had our three decades on top of the world, and now we are yielding that complete control. Therefore, we need to start looking out for our interests.”

Pete Hegseth summed up this new philosophy in other words in the speech he gave after the capture of Maduro. The US government is now of the opinion that if you F around, you’ll find out. It is crass, and uncouth, but this is America demonstrating a return to the historical paradigm that the world has always known: that if you are a small power and you pick a fight with a major power then you will get pummelled.

Now of course, for our Millennials who have grown up in the good times, this reality is terrible to reckon with. We have been taught to believe that the world is a just and happy place. We want to believe that the use of force is never necessary. But the realities of history and human nature demonstrate that it is not. The utopian idea that if we simply trust everyone and give them as many chances as possible, that they will always choose peace and goodness is misguided and a little naive.

We should absolutely aspire to these ideals, and should always believe that we can one day have a world where those fundamental values of peace and harmony win out. But today, it is clear that this is not that world.

The evidence is clear, we can see what happens when we give dictators an inch: they take a mile. Venezuela has been a devastated nation for years now, but it was only after Maduro picked a fight with the American President that he was deposed. The US won’t tolerate these sorts of regimes in the western hemisphere anymore.

They look to reiterate the wisdom that Teddy Roosevelt promoted: aim to walk softly and carry a big stick. They have been walking (relatively) softly for decades, and political actors have started to forget the threat of the big stick. To restore its deterrence, that stick needs to actually be swung around every once in a while. Otherwise, enterprising enemies will start to think that they’re immune or out of its reach. Venezuela is a textbook example of this philosophy.

As for Millennial attitudes, we have to understand that until our utopia emerges, and the rest of the world gets on board with western values, the terra firma fundamentals that have governed history will continue to rule the day.

The real golden rule when it comes to global policy and the world order has always been that might means right. If you don’t maintain military superiority and deterrence, you will lose your influence.

It is best to meet reality head on and accept that the times are changing, this historical chapter will be one of multipolarity. In many ways, it will feel like a regression, there will likely be more conflicts as the shift continues. The alternative is to not meet the moment is much worse. To land in a reality where western values no longer hold the influence they once did.

That’s the calculus the American government has made, at least.

Comments:

At accordingto.ca, We Believe in Rebuilding the Missing Middle.

If you believe in what we’re doing:

Subscribe. It’s free, and it tells us you’re with us.

Share. If something moves you, pass it on. Help us grow.

Contribute. Know someone who should be writing for us? Tell them. Or tell us.

We’re building something here. And we can’t do it alone.